In this module of I/B/E/S the forecasts of the individual analysts are summarized to create 'snapshots'. You find in this module for example the number of estimates and the mean estimate made for the EPS in 2009 of a particular company. This data is available on a monthly basis; the snapshots are made on the thursday before the third friday of the month.
To download data you have to take four steps:
Step 1: What date range do you want to use?
There are two date variables you can choose to start with:
- Forecast Period End Date: the ending month and year of the fiscal period to which the estimate applies (the end of the fiscal year or quarter).
- I/B/E/S Statistical Period: the date when the set of summary statistics was calculated; the date the 'snapshots' were taken.
Use the dropdownmenu to make your choice and select the begin- and enddate.
Example 1: If you are searching for forecasts made in 2008, for the EPS of the fiscal years 2008, 2009, 2010, etc. than you have to select I/B/E/S Statistical Period, Jan 2008 and Dec 2008.
Step 2: How would you like to search this dataset?
These identifiers (or company codes) are used in I/B/E/S:
- Official Ticker
- I/B/E/S Ticker
- 8-digit Cusip
Mark the identifier you use. You can enter the identifiers manually, upload a txt-file with identifiers, use saved codes in myWRDS or search the entire database.
PLEASE NOTE: by default 'US File only' is marked in I/B/E/S. When you're looking for forecasts for companies outside the US, you have to mark 'International File only' or 'Both'. Otherwise, only forecasts for American companies will be searched.
Then you choose the variable(s) you want to see forecasts of: most data is available for Earnings per Share.
The third choice is the Forecast Period Indicator.
- FPI = 1 - the forecasts are made for the fiscal year and are reported in the year before the publication of the annual report.
- FPI = 2 - the forecasts are made for the fiscal year and are reported in the year before FPI = 1, etc.
- FPI = 6 - the forecasts are made for the quarterly figures and are reported in the quarter before the publication of the quarterly report.
- FPI = 7 - the forecasts are made for the quarterly figures and are reported in the quarter before FPI = 6, etc.
- FPI = 0 - the long term growth (if you choose this date you can't select Forecast Period End Date at step 1, because there is no Period End for long term growth).
- Semiannual figures are only available for Japanese companies.
Step 3: What variables do you want in your query?
Don't forget to mark the Company Name!
From ‘Other Variables’ these are certainly important:
- Forecast Period End Date – the enddate of the fiscal period the forecast applies to
- IBES Statistical Period - the date of the 'snapshot'
- Number of estimates
- Mean estimate
- Actual Value - as reported by the company
- Announce Date of the Actual - the date of the publication of the actual value
- Currency from the detail actuals file
Step 4: How would you like the query output?
With the dropdownmenu's you can set the order of the columns. Then you choose the Output format, for example Excel. Because there will be a lot of dates in the output, it's useful to select a Date Format you can easily recognize. When you choose DATE9, Excel can't sort by date afterwards.
Click the button Submit Query and the downloading of the data begins. The output appears in a new screen as a link to the file. Save that file before you open it.
Say you want to know the mean estimates for the EPS in the fiscal year 2009 of Google.
- At Step 1 you choose Forecast Period End Date as the date variable, and you select "jan 2009" and "dec 2009".
- At Step 2 you search the ticker of Google with the Code Lookup function (GOOG), you select Earnings Per Share and you mark Fiscal Year 1, Fiscal Year 2 until Fiscal Year 10.
- At Step 3 you mark the variables (see above).
- At Step 4 you choose the output format.
In the output you find for example:
You can read this as follows (click on the image to enlarge it):
A snapshot has been made on August 18, 2005. On that day there are 3 forecasts for the Earnings per Share of the company Google for the fiscal year 2009. The mean estimate is 13,72 dollar. On January 21, 2010 the actual figures are published: EPS was 23,20 dollar. The Forecast Period Indicator shows that this data applies to annual figures: the 5 refers to Fiscal Year 5. September 15, 2005 the next snapshot was made.