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PhD defence of Rianne Legerstee on Thursday 10 May 2012

On Thursday 10 May 2012 Rianne Legerstee will defend her PhD thesis entitled 'Evaluating Econometric Models and Expert Intuition'. Supervisor is Professor Philip Hans Franses.

Time and location

The PhD defence will take place in the Senate Hall of Erasmus University Rotterdam and will start at 15.30 hrs.

About the PhD thesis

This thesis is about forecasting situations which involve econometric models and expert intuition. The first three chapters are about what it is that experts do when they adjust statistical model forecasts and what might improve that adjustment behavior. It is investigated how expert forecasts are related to model forecasts, how this potential relation is influenced by other factors and how it influences forecast accuracy, how feedback influences forecasting behavior and accuracy and which loss function is associated with experts’ forecasts.

The final chapter focuses on how to make use in an optimal way of multiple forecasts produced by multiple experts for one and the same event. It is found that potential disagreement amongst forecasters can have predictive value, especially when used in Markov regime-switching models.

About Rianne Legerstee

Rianne Legerstee (1985) obtained her master’s degree in econometrics with honors from Erasmus University Rotterdam in March 2008. In that same month she started as a PhD student at the Tinbergen Institute, with expert forecasting and econometrics as her primary fields of interests. She presented her research at several international conferences and published in journals such as International Journal of Forecasting, Expert Systems with Applications and Journal of the Operational Research Society.

About the Tinbergen Institute

The Tinbergen Institute is a joint research institute of the Erasmus School of Economics of the Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Amsterdam School of Economics of the University of Amsterdam and the Economics and Business Administration Faculty of the VU University Amsterdam.

 

See for more information:

For more information about this ceremony, please contact Ronald de Groot, Communication Advisor of Erasmus School of Economics phone +31 10 408 1762, e-mail: rdegroot@remove-this.ese.eur.nl.


Publication date: 02 May 2012


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