PhD defence of Mariska Douwens - Zonneveld on Thursday 29 March 2012
On Thursday 29 March 2012 Mariska Douwens - Zonneveld will defend her PhD thesis entitled 'Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?'. Supervisor is Professor Willem Verschoor and co-supervisor is Dr. Remco Zwinkels.
Time and location
The PhD defence will take place in the Senate Hall of Erasmus University Rotterdam and will start at 13.30 hrs.
About the PhD thesis
This study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this measure for large US companies from 1980 -2008 and find significantly different company and performance characteristics between confidence extremes. Diffident firms tend to be smaller, more distressed, less conservatively financed and, except for the new millennium, yield a lower return on invested capital with higher variability. When adjusting stock returns for risk, the performance differences prior to moving to extreme confidence become even more pronounced.
Extreme confidence could also distort earnings forecasts as analyst may overly rely on an anchor or make insufficient adjustments. Innate bias, anchoring to prior year earnings, risk attitude and responses to recent news are conditional on the level of analysis. Innate optimism prevails on the industry and analyst level. We find no support for anchoring by analysts with a long track record or across industries, which suggests a bottom-up approach. Long-term risk is considered as upside and short-term risk as downside potential. There is also a tendency to underreact to news, the extent of which seems conditional on the direction.
About Mirjam van Ginkel - Bieshaar
Mariska Douwens-Zonneveld earned a Master’s degree in Business Economics at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam in 2000. While working in the financial industry, she also achieved a Master in Financial Analysis at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. After a short break as assistant controller at a large retailer, she decided to move back to the investment banking industry. Following her function in equity research on Dutch and Belgian stocks, she worked in equity sales in New York City. After returning from New York City in 2009, she embarked upon the so-called Mature Talent program at the Erasmus School of Economics to do research in behavioral finance. As of 2012, she works as a fund manager credits at MN in Rijswijk.
See for more information:
For more information about this ceremony, please contact Ronald de Groot, Communication Advisor of Erasmus School of Economics phone +31 10 408 1762, e-mail: rdegroot@. ese.eur.nl
Publication date: 05 March 2012