(Ahmet Cem) AC Peker

Cem Peker (1989) is a PhD candidate at the Erasmus School of Economics. Cem holds a BSc in Industrial Engineering and an MPhil in Economics. He develops methods to elicit and aggregate beliefs in order to produce more accurate predictions/evaluations of phenomena. A precise evaluation of a policy/investment decision requires a comparison of actual measures with (unobservable) measures from a “counterfactual world”, where the decision was different. In one strand of his research, Cem works on an economic mechanism to obtain ‘wisdom of crowds’ estimates on such counterfactual measures. In another strand of his research, he works on improving collective predictions on a quantity. In general, experts are individually more accurate in their predictions than laypeople. However, experts could be collectively biased due to shared information bias, incentives to herd etc. Cem investigates if predictions from less informed people can be used to correct for such biases in expert consensus.
Supervisors: prof.dr. Aurélien Baillon and prof.dr. Han Bleichrodt