Economic Outlook Rotterdam 2026: City faces fundamental choices to future-proof its economy

The report portrays an economy under pressure from geopolitical tensions, high energy prices, electricity grid congestion and a declining industrial base, while also highlighting opportunities to strengthen the city's innovative capacity and long-term competitiveness.

Economic growth expected to remain subdued

The report forecasts a slight economic contraction of 0.2% in 2026, followed by modest growth of just 0.3% in 2027. According to the researchers, international uncertainty, disruptions to global supply chains and persistently high energy prices are weighing on Rotterdam's economic performance. Industry and the petrochemical sector, long regarded as the region's economic backbone, are particularly affected. High energy costs and constraints on the electricity grid are hindering investment in decarbonisation and new production capacity, while national policy challenges, including nitrogen regulations, continue to discourage investment.

Economic transition requires greater resilience

The EVR shows that Rotterdam is in the midst of a major economic transition. Although sectors such as IT, telecommunications and specialised business services continue to expand, they are not yet able to compensate for the declining importance of traditional industry. At the same time, while the labour market remains tight, the researchers expect unemployment to increase, particularly among lower-skilled workers, as the economic slowdown continues. The report also underlines Rotterdam's vulnerability as an international port city to geopolitical developments and disruptions in global value chains. According to the researchers, this calls for a clear strategy focused on strengthening economic resilience and strategic autonomy.

Innovation as the engine of future growth

Innovation is a second central theme of the EVR. Rotterdam benefits from strong sectors including the port, the maritime industry, logistics, green chemistry and medical technology. However, the researchers argue that the city lacks a distinctive innovation identity, making it more difficult to attract international talent and investment. In addition, there remains a gap between knowledge creation and commercial application: many innovations originate outside Rotterdam or are successfully scaled up elsewhere. To strengthen the city's future earning capacity, Rotterdam should focus more explicitly on scaling up innovation and creating a stronger ecosystem in which businesses, knowledge institutions and public authorities work more closely together.

Space, energy and labour market challenges

The researchers also identify fragmented governance and physical constraints as barriers to economic development. Limited space, electricity grid congestion and nitrogen regulations are creating tensions between housing development, industrial activity and new economic initiatives. Furthermore, there is a mismatch in the labour market: while Rotterdam has a strong practically skilled workforce, education and policy are not yet sufficiently aligned with the needs of emerging innovative industries.

A long-term strategy is essential

The EVR therefore calls for a coherent long-term strategy that integrates economic growth, innovation, sustainability and broad-based prosperity. The researchers see significant opportunities for Rotterdam to position itself as the Netherlands' leading city for testing, scaling up and deploying new technologies. Achieving this will require targeted investment in energy infrastructure, space for innovative businesses, human capital, housing and a stronger investment and innovation strategy. The report also stresses the importance of closer regional cooperation, as economic value chains increasingly extend across the wider region.

Broad prosperity remains a guiding principle

Although competitiveness is expected to remain high on the political agenda in the coming years, the researchers emphasise that economic development cannot be separated from broad prosperity. Health, affordability, sustainability and social inclusion remain essential foundations for a strong economy. In a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, innovation should therefore not only serve as a driver of economic growth, but also as a means of strengthening the long-term well-being and prosperity of Rotterdam's residents. The new Rotterdam coalition agreement bears witness to this broad vision of prosperity, with housing construction and prospects for young people as key priorities alongside the economy.