On Thursday 7 December Ilke Aydogan will defend his PhD thesis entitled 'Decisions from Experience and from Description: Beliefs and Probability Weighting'. Supervisors are Professor Han Bleichrodt and Professor Aurelien Baillon. Other members of the committee are: Professor P.P. Wakker (Erasmus University Rotterdam), Professor O. l’Haridon (University of Rennes) and Professor J. Qiu (Radboud University).
Ilke’s PhD research project is conducted within the Erasmus Doctoral Programme organised by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), the joint research institute of Rotterdam School of Management (RSM) and Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) of the Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR).
About Ilke Aydogan
Ilke Aydogan (1988) obtained his BSc degree on Economics in 2011 at Bilkent University, Ankara. After obtaining his MPhil degree on Economics at Tinbergen Institute and University of Amsterdam in 2013, he joined the Behavioral Economics group at Erasmus University Rotterdam as a PhD candidate. This thesis reflects his work on behavioral decision making under risk and uncertainty during his PhD studies. Since June 2017, he is employed at Bocconi University, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy (IEFE), as a postdoctoral researcher.
Decisions from description typically concern risk in the literature on decision making. It is identified as a case where outcome probabilities are objectively known. Decisions from experience, on the other hand, represent a case of ambiguity. Here, the outcome probabilities are not known objectively but they are subjectively inferred based on observations. As in many real life situations, probabilistic inference and information search are integral parts of decisions from experience. This dissertation explores behavioral differences between decisions from experience and from description by focusing on the role of (1) probability weighting, and (2) subjective beliefs. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of experience on probability weighting. Chapter 3 points out the role of prior beliefs in accounting for decisions from experience. Chapter 4 introduces a non-Bayesian model of updating which accommodates common biases in probabilistic inference. Chapter 5 reports results of a laboratory experiment testing Prelec’s (1998) theory of probability weighting.
Time and location
The PhD defence will take place in the Senate Hall of Erasmus University Rotterdam and will start at 09.30 hrs.