The headlines are filled with news about natural disasters, from floods and wildfires to earthquakes and severe droughts. The increasing occurrence and severity of natural disasters sparks concern about their impact on communities, ecosystems, and economic stability. But these concerns extend to vulnerable sectors like tourism as they are highly susceptible to external shocks. Those natural disasters impact tourism seems evident. They damage cultural heritage sites, landscapes, attractions, and infrastructure – and may also shape how much confidence tourists place in a destination. Selahattin Tolga Er, PhD researcher, and Ender Demir were particularly interested in whether affected places could regain their social and economic vitality over time, that is why they researched the underlying mechanisms of tourism demand in their 2026 study When Disaster Hits, Governance Splits.
Two travelers, two realities
Picture an earthquake like the one that has hit Colombia just last month. A family in a few towns overhears about it on the TV, checks in with relatives and decides within a day whether the roads are safe to drive. A tourist from Italy sees the same earthquake pictured in a five second clip on the news. They see rubble, sirens, and a growing number of deaths but have no idea if this happened five or five hundred kilometers from where they planned to stay.
That gap in knowledge and, therefore, forced reliance on trust is a big part of understanding how natural disasters affect tourism. Domestic travelers know the area and are more likely to visit and support their relatives or friends that live in the impacted area whereas international travelers need to rely on the news coverage or other external information. And that is exactly where a country’s governance makes the difference.
Understanding the conditions that support recovery
Drawing on data from 37 OECD countries between 1996 and 2021, Er and Demir researched the impact of six dimensions of governance; government effectiveness, the rule of law, political stability, regulatory quality, the control of corruption, and voice and accountability on domestic and inbound tourism after natural disasters. Er explains: “We were particularly interested in questions of reconstruction, recovery, and whether places affected by such disasters can regain their social and economic vitality over time. Tourism had become a major source of income and employment and is closely tied to these issues because recovery is not only about rebuilding physical infrastructure; it also involves restoring confidence, perceptions of safety, and the image of a destination. Understanding why some countries are more resilient than others can help us to identify the conditions that support recovery.”
Governance as a signal of safety and reliability
For international tourists' natural disasters land hard. But strong governance was found to not only soften the blow, but possibly even turn it into increased tourism with longer-term effects. Er explains: “Institutional capacity is a form of resilience. For international tourism in particular, strong governance appears to signal safety, stability and reliability.” Inbound tourism resilience, therefore, wasn’t found to only rely on physical restauration of the site but more so on the capacity to manage recovery effectively. “This matters for governments, but also for hotels, airlines, tour operators and local businesses whose recovery depends partly on restoring visitor confidence”, Er states.
This is particularly true for geological events like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, which tend to hit hard but are contained in a specific place. Governments can show up, rebuild, and demonstrate their capacity to manage the crisis effectively. Whereas that is harder for climatological disasters like droughts or wildfires that spread across bigger regions, the scope for governance to shape recovery may be more limited. Nonetheless, Er highlights that transparent communication remains essential: “Communication should be part of a more holistic, tourism-specific disaster management approach. Authorities should actively communicate recovery progress, demonstrate visible disaster-management capacity, and highlight preventive measures to reassure international audiences. This means involving tourism stakeholders in preparedness, recovery planning, sustainable tourism development, and post-disaster destination marketing.”
The domestic tourism response
Domestic tourism showed the opposite. Countries with weaker governance actually showed increased domestic tourism numbers. But not for the reason one might think. Er and Demir note that it is important to discuss how we define recovery or resilience. “As an increase in tourism numbers after a disaster may appear positive, but our findings suggest indirectly that this interpretation can be misleading, particularly for domestic tourism.” One possible explanation for this increase is displacement. People may be forced to relocate out of the area that has been hit, family and friends may travel to support loved ones, or people may decide on travelling locally as international travel might be compromised or domestic travel might become cheaper. When governance was strong, this type of forced or support movement was less necessary.
The rule of law is described as one of the six governance variables, but what happens if the recovery operation becomes an international one? For example, when France asked for EU assistance in fighting their wildfires recently.
“In our study, the rule of law is primarily a national-level institutional measure. It refers broadly to the extent to which contracts and property rights are protected; courts and law enforcement function effectively, crime is controlled, and legal rules are applied in a predictable manner. In the face of a crisis, it becomes especially important that contracts remain enforceable, policies and regulations are applied non-selectively, and emergency powers are exercised within clear legal boundaries without arbitrary or discriminatory treatment.”
“International and regional arrangements can certainly become relevant. France’s recent wildfire response is a good example of this distinction. France activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, after which the European Commission mobilized firefighting aircraft from other European countries. In such cases, international cooperation can complement national institutional capacity when a disaster exceeds what one country can manage alone. Our study does not examine this directly, but it would be a very interesting extension of the research, particularly to investigate whether international assistance mechanisms influence bilateral inbound tourism flows.”
Takeaways for tourism resilience
The researchers note that international tourism is a trust-sensitive business. One where governments should focus as much on rebuilding infrastructure as they work on restoring visitor confidence and trust. Especially regulatory quality, transparency, and anti-corruption efforts were suggested for important directions of capacity-building, as they are closely linked to international trust and may help to accelerate tourism recovery and enhance long-term attractiveness of a country even outside the disasters’ context. Er highlights: “Different disasters demand different paths to recovery. Our findings suggest that one-size-fits-all policies are unlikely to be effective. Effective recovery policy should reflect the nature of the type of disaster itself, including its speed of onset, geographic reach, and duration, while also ensuring the involvement of relevant stakeholders.”
But good governance is not only beneficial to tourism resilience: “Good governance has much broader objectives than tourism alone. It includes the freedoms and accountability enjoyed by people in a country, political stability, the quality of public services, the government’s capacity to design and implement policies and regulations, the rule of law, and the control of corruption”. Therefore, they advise policymakers to focus on building strong institutions. To communicate recovery progress and disaster management clearly and often especially to international audiences as they are working with far less knowledge and information than locals. And tailor the response to the disaster. Fast and visible for geological disasters and long-term adaptation and diversification for climatological events.
Er concludes: “Natural disasters are physical shocks, but their consequences are shaped by institutions. The same earthquake, wildfire, or other disaster can produce very different tourism outcomes depending on the institutional capacity of a country. Rebuilding infrastructure is essential, but so is demonstrating that institutions function effectively. In short, a destination’s resilience depends not only on what it rebuilds, but also on whether its institutions can be relied upon when the next disaster occurs.”
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Read the whole article here: When Disaster Hits, Governance Splits: Different Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism - Erasmus University Rotterdam
