Dutch economy seems to recover in autumn

Dutch economy recovers in October this year, after a negative second quarter. This is expected by the Rotterdam researchers Prof. Philip Hans Franses and Prof. Bert de Groot of Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), composers of the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy (EICIE).

According to the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy (EICIE), a GDP growth of 1,0% is expected in the third quarter (this compared to Q3 in 2012). The EICIE indicator is an indicator for quarterly growth of the Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. It is based on the relationship between the trends in temporary staffing through Randstad Staffing Services (the world's second-largest HR service provider) and trends in GDP, and hence the proven predictive value of temporary and contract staffing for the Dutch economy.

De Groot: "My expectation is that the growth we predict right now will be confirmed by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) by mid November when they announce the first estimate of 2013 Q3. It also seems to perpetuate, because we expect a growth of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter.


De Groot and Franses predict a small positive growth of the Dutch economy. Also according to the Econometricians forum Erasmus University Current and Leading Indicator (EUCLID) a comparative trend is observed. April’s report of 2013 shows a significant rise in the confidence of the surveyed experts concerning the development of the economic climate. De Groot and Franses: "Such an increase is always some months ahead of the actual economic recovery.”

More information

For more information, please contact:

Ronald de Groot, Communications Officer at the Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl

Tel.: +31 10 408 17 62, mobile no. +31 653 641 846.

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