Seven points on how the new Dutch government should deal with the migration crisis

According to Scholten, it is almost impossible to keep up with current events. 'The formation of the new cabinet is still ongoing, and it seems to be focusing on just one issue again: how do we solve the migration crisis?' That was also the case during the elections. 'They started talking about housing, security and Ukraine, but soon the focus shifted back to migration.'

Facts versus feelings

As a scientist, Scholten looks at the figures behind that sense of crisis. 'Was there really an exceptional asylum crisis? No. Migration flows have actually been declining in recent years,' Scholten explains. He emphasises that, historically speaking, the numbers are not exceptional either. 'Compared to the 1990s or even the period after the Second World War, we are at lower levels.'

Furthermore, according to Scholten, the debate focuses disproportionately on asylum, even though this accounts for only a small proportion of total migration. 'On average, asylum migration accounted for only 11 per cent of all migration between 2014 and 2023.' The idea that the Netherlands takes in more migrants than other European countries is also incorrect. 'We have been structurally below the European average for twenty years.'

Yet these facts hardly stick. 'Facts have no hold on the migration debate,' Scholten concludes. 'That was my reason for writing the book De Migratie-obsessie (The Migration Obsession). It is not about how migration works, but about how the debate works.'

Chaos caused by policy

So where does this persistent sense of crisis come from? Scholten points first and foremost to policy. 'People's concerns are not so much about numbers, but about the chaos in asylum policy.' The constant opening and closing of reception centres and registration points leads to visible problems. 'When people sleep on the streets and photos are taken of them, everyone thinks: see, there are too many migrants. But that is the result of policy, not migration.'

In doing so, other social problems are often "migrantised". 'The housing shortage is constantly linked to asylum seekers, even though they account for only about 8% of social housing. This is how you attach migration to problems that are caused by something else entirely.'

Politics of fear

Scholten also mentions the politics of fear. 'Fear works. Bad news works. And migration is a perfect storm for that.' According to him, political parties are failing to counter this with a positive and realistic vision for the future. 'The only way to dispel fear is with a positive outlook on the migration society.'

The media also play a role in this. 'The crisis frame sells. Migration is a dream come true for the media: conflict, emotion, personalisation. Without the media, that feeling of permanent crisis would have been much less pronounced.'