Sixth Monitor of Organised Crime: Research into cocaine trafficking and contract killings

The Monitor of Organised Crime

Since 1997, the Monitor of Organised Crime has analysed large-scale criminal investigations into serious and organised crime. By studying these investigations over an extended period and using a consistent methodology, the monitor offers a unique picture of how criminal networks operate, how suspects develop over time, and how law enforcement responds. "In total, nearly two hundred cases covering a wide range of manifestations of organised crime have now been examined. For this sixth report, we specifically focused on cocaine trafficking and contract killings," says Roks. These offences were analysed using four recurring themes: modus operandi, criminal networks, the criminal life courses of suspects, and the approach taken by police and the prosecution. For cocaine trafficking, developments over a 25-year period were also examined.

Persistent continuity

One of the report's key conclusions is the remarkable degree of continuity. Despite societal changes, technological developments and intensified law enforcement efforts, many characteristics of organised crime have remained surprisingly stable over time. Roks explains: "Since its inception, the Monitor of Organised Crime has been important in counterbalancing certain perceptions of organised crime. There is, for example, a widespread image of hierarchically organised groups, such as those portrayed in films and television series. However, the criminal investigations we studied show that criminal networks are generally fluid in nature. They consist of flexible networks with a limited core, surrounded by changing executors and facilitators." The criminal life courses of suspects also show little change. On average, suspects become involved in organised crime at the same age as their counterparts did decades ago. The onset of criminal careers and progression into organised crime have therefore followed similar patterns for many years.

Changes in smuggling methods

At the same time, the research shows that organised crime is constantly adapting, particularly in the context of cocaine trafficking. "There is a wide range of smuggling methods. We still see very traditional methods, as well as new adaptations and working practices. Moreover, smuggling no longer takes place solely via the Port of Rotterdam; Dutch criminal networks are also active in other European ports," says Roks. A striking development is the increased reliance on 'inside assistance'. Stricter inspections and security measures have made it increasingly difficult for criminal networks to import cocaine without internal support. Intercepted encrypted communications in recent cases have provided concrete evidence of corruption within companies and, in some instances, within public authorities. These adaptations illustrate the adaptive capacity of criminal networks.

Contract killings and organised violence

Roks notes: "For the first time within the Monitor of Organised Crime, we have also examined a number of major contract killing cases; this had not been done in this way in previous rounds." The researchers identify a tightly organised modus operandi in contract killings, consisting of successive phases such as commissioning, preparation, execution, escape and aftermath. Within these processes, there is a clear division of roles, with executing roles changing more frequently than organising roles. Although contract killings have been a major focus of policy and law enforcement in recent years, the research shows that the number of such killings has declined in recent times. The factors underlying this decrease cannot be determined unequivocally. For that very reason, the researchers stress the need for further research to better understand this development.

The central role of communication

As in earlier monitoring rounds, insight into communication proves crucial for law enforcement. Access to encrypted PGP messages has had a significant impact on exposing criminal networks, both in cocaine trafficking cases and in contract killing investigations. Particularly in complex contract-killing cases, this data enabled linking separate investigations and revealing broader networks. Roks explains: "PGP communication is sometimes described by law enforcement as a game changer, because it provides insight into activities that would not have come to light through more traditional investigative methods. For this study, too, PGP messages yielded many new insights. At the same time, this also meant that some of the cases we examined contained less in-depth information, simply because the PGP communications provided more than sufficient evidence to secure a conviction. As a result, it was not always clear how cooperation had emerged or how suspects had come to know one another."

Suspects are increasingly off the radar

Another notable finding concerns the backgrounds of suspects. Compared with earlier cohorts, suspects in recent cases are more often found to have little or no prior criminal record before coming to the attention of authorities for organised crime. This runs counter to the image of a gradual progression from minor offences. This development makes early intervention more difficult. When individuals are not previously known to police and judicial authorities, there are fewer points of contact for preventive action.

Implications for policy and law enforcement

The findings of the sixth monitor report offer important points of reference for policy and practice. "The research particularly highlights the interaction between law enforcement and criminal networks, and that calls for reflection. For example, a stronger focus on combating drugs in major ports may lead to displacement effects, such as a shift towards smaller ports," says Roks. The use of data-driven policing, partly based on PGP data, also raises questions about prioritisation, capacity and blind spots. The report underlines that choices made in law enforcement partly determine the picture of organised crime that emerges.

In addition to Roks, researchers from the WODC and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam also contributed to the study. The researchers are Claire van den Eeden, Vere van Koppen, Heleen Goes, Sanne van Deuveren and Lara Krijger.