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Abstract
We develop a continuous-time endowment economy model of the U.S. in which inflation and the central bank’s policy rate serve as observable risk factors driving consumption growth and asset prices. The model features Epstein–Zin preferences, mean-reverting inflation dynamics, and discrete policy adjustments calibrated to historical FOMC decisions. We derive semi–closed-form solutions for the equity premium, risk-free rate, price–dividend ratio, and nominal yield curve, all determined by observable macroeconomic variables. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model shows that inflation and monetary policy jointly predict key asset pricing moments, with a nonlinear interaction between the two variables providing substantial predictive power beyond their individual effects. The framework replicates the magnitude and state dependence of Treasury and dividend yield predictability, matching the performance of leading latent-factor models while relying solely on observable variables suited for real-time forecasting and policy evaluation.
