The Dutch trade in fossil fuels has seen a sharp downturn over the past six months. According to new figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the import value fell by 11 per cent and the export value by as much as 15 per cent compared with the same period last year. At first glance, this appears to be a direct consequence of the energy transition, but according to Ronald Huisman, Professor of Sustainable Energy Finance at Erasmus School of Economics, the reality is more nuanced.
Energy transition not the single direct cause
‘It is not the case that the rise of renewable energy is the only cause that leads to a decline in fossil fuel trade,’ says Huisman. ‘The growth of alternative energy sources and the reduction in fossil fuel imports and exports occur alongside each other, but one does not directly cause the other.’
For many years, natural gas in the Netherlands was considered a cleaner alternative to coal, often presented as a stepping stone in the shift towards a more sustainable energy system. That perception has now shifted. Gas use has declined, while wind and solar energy have gained ground. According to Huisman, this growth is primarily driven by targeted investments and international climate commitments.
Climate goals as the main driver
The Netherlands has committed itself under the Paris Agreement to becoming climate neutral by 2050. ‘Wind and solar energy naturally emit far less CO₂. Investing in these sources is a relatively straightforward way to green the energy mix,’ Huisman explains. ‘It is not that we use less gas and therefore switch to renewables; it is the other way round. By investing in solar and wind, gas consumption decreases automatically.’
Geopolitical pressure and energy independence
Alongside climate policy, geopolitics plays a crucial role. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The European Union responded with sanctions, which drastically curtailed imports.
According to Huisman, this development accelerated the shift towards renewable energy. ‘The first reason for investing in renewables was climate-related, but the desire to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers has strongly reinforced that movement,’ he notes. ‘In a trade conflict, you don’t want your energy supply to rely heavily on imported gas.’
Limits of wind and solar
Yet Huisman also points to the limitations of the current path. Wind and solar energy are not always reliable. ‘It is not sunny or windy every day. The question is: what do you do on a calm, overcast day?’
Nuclear power is often suggested as an alternative, but Huisman warns against overreliance. ‘It is expensive, and it takes years before new plants become operational. It is not a quick fix.’
A call for flexibility
The essence of Huisman’s argument is that the Netherlands should not depend on a single alternative source but should aim for a flexible energy mix. ‘If you ensure access to multiple forms of energy, better co-ordinate consumption and production of renewable energy, and increase the storage capacity, then you are on the right track,’ he argues.
The latest CBS figures show fossil fuels are taking up a less prominent role in the Dutch economy. Yet, according to Huisman, this decline is not simply the story of the energy transition. It is the outcome of a complex interplay of climate ambitions, geopolitical tensions and strategic investments in renewable energy.
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For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, +31 6 53 641 846.
