New research by Professor Dinand Webbink of Erasmus School of Economics, together with researchers Tijana Prokic-Breuer and Stan Vermeulen of Maastricht University, provides encouraging evidence on the long-term economic prospects of non-Western migrants in Europe. The study shows that differences in key skills between non-Western migrants and native populations decline substantially within a single generation.
In the paper “On the Economic Prospects of Non-Western Migrants in Europe” that was published in the Journal of Population Economics earlier this year, Webbink, Prokic-Breur and Vermeulen examine the intergenerational transmission of cognitive skills using a unique combination of Dutch survey and administrative data that links parents and their children. Focusing on mathematics and language skills (two important predictors of educational and labour market success), the study finds strong convergence between non-Western migrant families and native Dutch families over time.
The central finding is striking: differences in math and language skills are reduced by approximately 60 to 70 percent within one generation. This suggests that many of the disadvantages observed among first-generation migrants do not persist to the same extent among their children.
The study also challenges concerns that ethnic or community-based factors may create persistent barriers to integration. The researchers find little evidence that so-called “ethnic externalities” significantly slow the process of convergence. In other words, the mechanisms that could potentially trap migrant groups in long-term disadvantage appear to play a limited role.
Implications for integration and education policy
‘These findings provide a more optimistic perspective on the long-term economic integration of non-Western migrants in Europe,’ says Dinand Webbink, Professor of Policy Evaluation at Erasmus School of Economics. ‘While differences in skills are evident among current generations, our results indicate that these gaps diminish substantially among the next generation.’ The findings suggest that current skill disparities should not be viewed as permanent and that integration processes may be more effective than commonly assumed.
The research contributes to ongoing policy debates across Europe regarding migration, education, and labour market integration. By demonstrating substantial intergenerational progress, the study offers evidence that investments in education and opportunities for migrant families can have lasting effects on economic outcomes.
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For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, mobile +31 6 53 641 846.
