A Theory of Change (ToC) is a formative, process-based evaluation method that is most often used to inform or improve project planning. This page will introduce some tools that describe the framework and can help you develop your own Theory of Change.
What is a Theory of Change?
A Theory of Change (ToC) is a method for describing your theory about how and why a desired change is supposed to happen. It unpacks the multiple steps involved in the change process, recognising that it is characterised by a complex, non-linear system with a web of causes and effects.
A ToC starts by identifying the clear goal that you are contributing to and works backward to establish preconditions for reaching that bigger goal. This backcasting exercise helps identify a set of causally linked paths from activities to outputs, outcomes, and impacts. During the ToC process, all these elements are unpacked, alongside the underlying assumptions that underpin the links on how change happens.
Key elements in developing a ToC are:
- Impact vision or bigger goal your work is contributing to (description of context, current state, and other actors able to influence change).
- Main actors that are either involved in the process or have a stake in the work (long-term outcomes that you seek to support and for whose ultimate benefit).
- Main activities, their resulting outputs, and outcomes (a broad sequence of anticipated (or required) events to lead to the desired long-term outcomes).
Our Theory of Change tool
This tool provides a description of the framework based on scientific literature, in which you can learn about the Theory of Change. It includes guidance on why, when, and how to use this method to describe how you envision certain changes to happen in a given context.
Theory of Change (ToC): A Method for Impact Planning and Assessment
A process-based method that can help plan for impact & identify strengths & weaknesses of a project.
Related tools and resources
Most often, a ToC is done in a workshop setting with multiple stakeholders present. The Evaluating Societal Impact (ESI) team developed the Journey of Progress card set, which is a tool to help you think collaboratively about processes of change and begin developing your own ToC in less than an hour. You may use this card set during a workshop for which we also provide a slide deck to facilitate this process. For further inspiration, you may also review our digital workshop template (password: ToCworkshop) for developing ToCs.
Additionally, these are other resources that can support you with developing a ToC workshop: