Research reveals long-term success of negatively selected migrants from former Dutch colony

The paper, which is forthcoming in the Journal of Human Resources, is titled "Unexpected Colonial Returns: Self-Selection and Economic Integration of Migrants Over Multiple Generations". The study may have important implications for immigration policy worldwide, especially as countries continue to debate the costs and benefits of accepting migrants from diverse backgrounds.

In their paper, Gielen and Webbink explore a unique episode in Dutch colonial history: the mass migration from Suriname to the Netherlands in the 1970s,  following from Suriname’s impending independence, which would soon impose new visa requirements and make migration to the Netherlands significantly more difficult.

When the announcement of the migration ban came in 1974, it triggered a rush to migrate, known as the “beat-the-ban” wave. Unlike earlier, economically motivated migrants that were typically younger and more educated, these mass migrants were more representative of Suriname’s overall population including also older, lower-skilled, and individuals from more rural and disadvantaged backgrounds.

Negatively selected but resilient

Migrants who arrived just before the ban, the so-called beat-the-ban group, were generally older, less educated, and less prepared for life in the Netherlands than earlier, economically motivated migrants. As a result, their initial economic outcomes lagged well behind both native Dutch and earlier Surinamese migrants.

Accelerated progress across generations

Despite these early disadvantages, the children and grandchildren of beat-the-ban migrants over time climbed the social ladder faster than the descendants of earlier migrants. Their socioeconomic outcomes improved more rapidly, narrowing the gap with native Dutch at a quicker pace.

Slow and uneven social mobility

Although economic integration improves over generations, progress is gradual. Both groups of migrants, regardless of their initial selection, exhibit lower social mobility than native Dutch families, diverging from patterns seen in countries like the United States. As a result, the study suggests that full economic integration may require several generations.

The study used an extraordinary dataset linking three generations of Surinamese-Dutch families based on biological family ties, a methodological advance that allowed researchers Anne Gielen and Dinand Webbink to study intergenerational outcomes over 40 years.

‘Our research changes the conversation on migrant integration,’ says Anne Gielen, Professor of Labour Economics and Policy. ‘The findings suggest that policymakers relying on selection criteria at the point of entry may overlook the longer-term potential of migrants who had fewer opportunities in their country of origin.’

Dinand Webbink, Professor of Policy Evaluation, adds: ‘These results imply that disadvantaged migrants can thrive across generations, if given the chance, and that investment in the integration of all migrant groups pays off in the long run.’