For a moment, Prime Minister Rutte thought that the European Heads of Government would be able to agree on the allocation of European jobs Monday morning, 1 July 2019. On the morning of 2 July 2019, a further meeting will be held to discuss whether Frans Timmermans, the strongest contender, will become the new President of the European commission.
In Economenpanel of BNR Nieuwsradio, Sandra Phlippen, Assistant Professor at Erasmus School of Economics and Head for the Netherlands at ABN AMRO’s Group Economics, discusses, together with Luc Aben (Lanschot Bankiers) and Rens van Tilburg (Sustainable Finance Lab), the benefits for the Netherlands, how the appointment of the European Commission’s President is related to the appointment of the ECB’s President and the outcome of the G20 summit.
Appointment of the President of the European Commission’s vs President of the ECB
According to Phlippen, the choice issue of the new President of the European Commission certainly matters, but not as much as the appointment of the new ECB President. ‘It is a shame that, because all the appointments occur at the same time, it seems as if the decision for whom the new President of the ECB is going to be is influenced by who will take the other position in the “carousel”. Especially because of the impact of the ECB, if it changes course only slightly the impact is enormous.’
Van Tilburg says that it is precisely this impact that, in his eyes, makes it unlikely that Jens Weidmann, a German, will become the ECB’s President, ‘since it will immediately become a completely different ECB that will ultimately have a disastrous effect on the real economy as well.’ ‘That is why it is a shame that if there is no German at the head of the European Commission, there is a greater chance that Jens Weidmann will become the president of the ECB, with all the consequences this will bring,’ says Phlippen.
The question is whether the best candidate eventually is appointment for such an important position, looking at everything that needs to be considered. ‘If you look at the last ECB President, Mario Draghi, it was pretty precarious to appoint an Italian at the time. Many people thought that he would only serve the southern European’s interest. He really did try to do what was best for the Eurozone as a whole, in a fairly academic-technical way,’ says Phlippen.
G20 Summit
Philippen says it is important to wonder that if there had been positive news from the G20, and instead of a ceasefire between the USA and China, a real trade agreement would have been reached, who would have Trump next in their line of sight? ‘His wrath must always be directed at somebody, otherwise his supporters will not be satisfied, especially now that the elections are coming up. The last few weeks we see angry tweets in the direction of Margrethe Verstager, and again hints towards the German car industry.'
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Listen to the complete item from BNR Nieuwradio, 1 July 2019 (in Dutch).