According to Emeritus Professor Jan van Ours of Erasmus School of Economics, the Eredivisie (the highest level of Dutch professional football) remains a striking paradox: the league appears exciting and unpredictable, yet the eventual champion can often be identified statistically at an early stage. He argues this in an opinion piece published on MeJudice.nl.
In the article, Van Ours analyses the 2025/2026 season from an economic and statistical perspective. Although the outcomes of individual matches remain difficult to predict and surprises occur regularly, he argues that the title race is structurally less competitive than supporters often perceive it to be. Underlying differences in budgets, squad depth and sporting quality mean that one club frequently emerges as the clear favourite at an early stage.
For the 2025/2026 season, both data analyses and bookmakers identified PSV Eindhoven as the leading contender for the title. Forecasts by data company Opta gave the Eindhoven club more than a 50 per cent chance of winning the championship. Ultimately, PSV lived up to that status by opening up a decisive gap over rivals such as Feyenoord and Ajax early in the campaign.
Van Ours stresses that the predictability of the eventual champion does not make the competition dull. On the contrary, the wide variation in match outcomes, unexpected results and battles for European qualification and relegation continue to provide excitement and entertainment. In this respect, his analysis reflects broader academic insights into “competitive balance” in European football: supporters value uncertainty within individual matches, even when the eventual champion is relatively predictable.
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Read here the full opinion article on MeJudice.nl (in Dutch). For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, +316 53 641 846.
