The Netherlands is considered an egalitarian country, with a strong social safety net, employment protection, and universal health insurance with broad basic coverage. But to what extent are the outcomes of individuals associated with the circumstances in which they grew up? We use rich administrative data on the full Dutch population to explore how differences in opportunity arise in terms of health, education, housing, and economic activity at different ages. In this article, I show how educational outcomes vary across neighbourhoods in the greater Rotterdam area.
Income differences by parental income
We wondered how exactly opportunities differ by circumstances which are out of the control of individuals, such as their parents’ income or the neighbourhood where they grew up. Our results show that the circumstances where people grow up matter greatly for how they are doing in life. For example, we can compare the current incomes of people who were born in the 1980s, depending on the income of their parents. Those whose parents were in the bottom 5% of the parental income distribution on average have an income of € 33,000, while those whose parents were in the top 5% have an average income of € 60,000. We have created an interactive website where anyone can explore these and other results for themselves: opportunitygap.nl (Dutch version kansenkloof.nl). On this website we also show differences by sex, migration background, and household composition.
'while 52% of these children in Blijdorp (postcode 3039) attend the high- or very high-ability track, this is only 19% in the Agniesebuurt (postcode 3032)'
Educational outcomes in Rotterdam: secondary school tracking
The results on income raise the question at what age these differences arise. A related question is to what extent differences in opportunity exist across municipalities or even neighborhoods. The figure in this article shows the proportion of all 16-year-old children who are in the high-ability (havo) or very high-ability (vwo) track in secondary school. We can see that in Kralingen-Oost (postcode 3062), 91% of children attend at least the very high-ability track, which this is true for only 26% of children who live in Crooswijk (postcode 3034), which is only a five-minute bike ride away. On our interactive website opportunitymap.nl (Dutch version kansenkaart.nl), anyone who is interested can explore these results and create maps according to their own interests.
Opportunity Map Rotterdam
Educational differences after holding parental income constant
The differences by neighbourhood might simply reflect that high- and low-income parents choose to live in different neighbourhoods. Our results make it possible to hold these differences constant, for example by comparing individuals whose parents are all on the 25th percentile of the parental income distribution. On average, these parents had an annual gross income of € 53,000 (adjusted to the 2018 price level) when their children were in their late teens to early twenties, which meant that 25% of parents of children of the same age had lower incomes while 75% had higher incomes.
'In our research, we quantify these inequalities to provide an evidence base for the discussion of equality of opportunity. Whether these differences are fair or unfair is something everyone can decide for themselves.'
When we look at 16-year-olds from these relatively low-income parents only, we still see big differences between neighbourhoods that are very close together: while 52% of these children in Blijdorp (postcode 3039) attend the high- or very high-ability track, this is only 19% in the Agniesebuurt (postcode 3032). Similar differences by neighbourhood can be observed in our results on standardised test scores of pupils in the final year of primary school, which can also be explored on the two interactive websites mentioned above.
Equality of opportunity: what is fair?
Inequality of opportunity can be defined as the extent to which outcomes over the life course are determined by external factors that are not under the control of the individual. In our research, we quantify these inequalities to provide an evidence base for the discussion of equality of opportunity. Whether these differences are fair or unfair is something everyone can decide for themselves.
Our results do not prove causality
Our results are purely descriptive and do not provide evidence on what causes differences in outcomes. For example, differences in outcomes between neighbourhoods or municipalities can be exclusively driven by the fact that different types of people select into different neighbourhoods, even if these people have similar incomes. Therefore, while our results show where upward intergenerational mobility is highest and where children could benefit from some extra support, they do not tell us how opportunities can be improved.
- Assistant professor