Sacking football managers does not improve performance, study finds

In Dust in the Wind: Causes and Consequences of Managerial Replacements, Van Ours examines managerial changes over seven seasons in the highest tier of Dutch professional football. In total, 31 managers were replaced during a season – around one in four. 

To determine whether a team was genuinely underperforming, Van Ours compared actual results with bookmaker expectations. He used two measures: the difference between actual and expected points, and the difference between expected performance based on expected goals and bookmaker expectations. Both measures were found to be important in decisions to replace a manager. A sequence of poor recent results also increased the likelihood of a managerial change. 

Results improve – but not because of the new manager 

Results tend to improve after a managerial replacement. However, a counterfactual analysis shows that a similar improvement would have occurred even if the existing manager had remained in place. 

In other words, replacing the manager does not, on average, cause better performance. Yet clubs continue to make changes because appointing a new manager creates the possibility of a better outcome. Even if a new manager is no more likely to be successful than the incumbent, there is always a chance that a club will get lucky and appoint someone at the top end of the ability distribution. 

Van Ours also points to a possible “scapegoat” effect. When results are disappointing, the manager is often the first person blamed by supporters, stakeholders and sports journalists. Replacing the manager may therefore provide a visible response to poor performance, even when it does not actually improve results. 

Lessons beyond football 

The findings also raise a broader economic question: can lessons from football be applied to managers in regular firms? 

There are important differences. Managerial replacements are common in professional football, whereas replacing managers in regular firms is relatively rare and can have significant consequences for their careers. At the same time, managers in both settings have to deal with stress, media attention and multiple stakeholders, while their organisations’ performance is partly determined by factors outside their control. 

The study therefore offers a cautionary lesson for organisations beyond football: a manager’s departure may be followed by better results without the replacement itself being responsible for the improvement.