Population pyramids tell a story about the demographics of a country (Figure 1). Births, deaths and migration all play a role in determining their shape. The higher the birth rate in a country, the wider the pyramid’s base. Countries with sustained replacement birth rates, where each woman has about 2 children, will have a straight edged, vertical pyramid, looking more like a rectangle. If fertility falls below replacement, the pyramid will start to become top-heavy, with more older-aged than younger-aged people. The smooth sides of a pyramid may expand or contract for particular age-groups, due to in- or out-migration. And all the while the force of mortality narrows the pyramid, particularly at older ages. Figure 1 explains how population pyramids can be read. For example, in 2019, 3.4% of the global population were women aged 35-39.
Figure 1 - How to read a population pyramid
In this post, we’ll take a look at some countries’ noticeably atypical population pyramids. We will puzzle out the population processes responsible for these peculiar shapes and discuss the consequences of these population structures for people living in these countries today and in the future.
Nepal and Qatar
What is the pattern?
The population pyramids for Nepal and Qatar (Figure 2) are near mirror opposites; it almost looks as though a part of the working age male population was carved out of the Nepalees pyramid and placed in Qatar’s. These pyramids illustrate large-scale economic migration.[1] Fourteen-percent of the Nepalese population, mostly men, have moved to rich Gulf states, like Qatar, where the demand for labour is high.[2]
Figure 2 - Population pyramid for Nepal (left) and Qatar (right), 2019.
What is the impact?
In Nepal, this out-migration of working-age men has left many families with no father figure, changing the gender roles for women, such as more female heads of houses. Gender segregation and inequalities continue to disadvantage these women (Rajkarnikar, 2020). Furthermore, Nepal has become highly dependent on remittances, money sent home by migrants living abroad, despite their benefits in improving growth and reducing poverty (Ghimire, n.d.; Sah, 2019).
In Qatar, these immigrants (16% of whom come from Nepal) make up 94% of the country’s workforce (Chalabi, 2013). The need for cheap labour has led to situations where migrant workers “risk exploitation and abuse” (Eltahawy et al., 2020, para. 3). Qatar has been criticised for human rights violations and countless migrant worker deaths (Amnesty International, 2021).
China
What is the pattern?
China’s population has undergone significant change over the last 40 years, with fertility rates in freefall between the late 1960s and 1980, and further declines in the 1990s (The World Bank, 2022; Figure 3). Additionally, there are more men than women in subsequent cohorts. This can be explained by China’s One Child Policy[3], introduced in 1979[4] (Hayes, 2021). This strict family planning regime led to an estimated 200 to 400 million fewer births in the country.
Figure 3 - Population Pyramid for China, 2019
What is the impact?
China’s extreme efforts to reduce fertility rates has caused rapid population ageing. In response, the government has increased the retirement age and expanded social spending to support what will, in 2050, be a third of the population over 60. (Jing, 2021). But what of the gender imbalance? There are approximately 12.8 million ‘missing girls’ in China due to sex-selective abortions, infanticide, and baby girls being hidden from official statistics (Cai & Laverly, 2003; Shi & Kennedy, 2016). For these girls, a lack of official registration restricts their opportunities, such as education. The removal of these girls from China's population during the one child policy stems from a cultural preference for sons. Ironically, there is significant imbalance in the marriage markets for heterosexual men seeking partners as a result. In Hesketh’s (2009) assessment of this disparity, they estimated that between 2000 and 2020, there were over 23.5 million extra men of “marriageable-age” (p.131); they are called the guang gun.[5] Hesketh suggests that these unattached men could lead to a rise in authoritarianism in China, or, on the other hand, an ease to the currently restricted openness to homosexuality.
Japan
What is the pattern?
The pyramids below (Figure 4) represent Japan’s population in 2019 and the projected population in 2050. Japan’s population pyramid will become increasingly top-heavy due to its ageing population and the overall population is shrinking.
Figure 4 - Population pyramid for Japan, 2019 (left), and 2050 (right)
What is the impact?
In ageing populations, where the median age is rising due to declining birth rates and rising life expectancy at birth, the welfare state and social care provision can become overburdened and overwhelmed, with lower levels of tax income to support it (Harth, 2020). Many governments in East Asia (including Japan) and Europe have passed legislation to raise or abolish retirement ages, hoping to keep people active in the labour market for longer. Even so, lower birth rates mean that adult children may find themselves alone in supporting their parents as they age. This so-called “Sandwich Generation” will face a double burden, caring for elderly relatives at the same time they are starting their own families (Tan 2018).
Cambodia
What is the pattern?
Cambodia demonstrates how historic events can wound the population for a lifetime (Figure 5). In the 1970s, a new regime, Khmer Rouge, commited genocide in Cambodia, targeting educated people and city-dwellers in particular (BBC News, 2018). At this time, few babies were born, due to the tremendous stress that the surviving population lived through, marriage rates were low, and one fifth of the population died due to the massacres, malnutrition and disease. A baby boom, coinciding with the end of Khmer Rouge, occurred 40 years ago[6], but the generations older than this are very small in number.
Figure 5 - Population pyramid for Cambodia (2020)
What is the impact?
In contrast to China and Japan, Cambodia’s population is relatively young; less than 10% of the population are over 50 (Quackenbush, 2019). Cambodia isn’t facing the same pressures as Japan; the old age dependency ratio [7] in Japan is 48, yet only 7.6 in Cambodia (Knoema, 2020). This means that for every elderly person, there are more working-age people in Cambodia than in Japan. But missing an elderly population can still cost societies. Elderly family members are often central to families, from passing on wisdom to the practicalities of grandparents providing childcare.
The elderly in Cambodia also suffer. A 2004 survey noted that 43% of Cambodian elderly lost a child during the 4 years of Khmer Rouge, 16% experienced death of a spouse, and 64% were forced to migrate. (Zimmer et al., 2006). But the Cambodian genocide is falling out of living memory. May 20th marks its Remembrance Day; there are reenactments and ‘killing fields’ open for tourists (Kopsa, 2019). Despite this, a study on Cambodian youth “concluded that many young Cambodians were not sufficiently aware of the brutal crimes committed by the regime” (Vann, 2018, para. 13).
Final note
When looking at statistical charts, it is easy to forget what they represent. Population pyramids tell the sometimes hidden story of a country’s past and present. They also demonstrate how a country’s future can be shaped by its demographic past. Atypical pyramids can be a result of genocide, infanticide from policy decisions, or a culture of placing work before family. More than just statistics, these population pyramids are the embodiment of real people and their lived experiences.
[1] The bulge in Qatar’s population looks so significant because it has a relatively small population otherwise (less than 3 million, compared to Nepal’s 28.6 million). In fact, over 75% of Qatar’s population is foreign born, the vast majority of those being of working age and male - source.
[2] The 2022 FIFA World Cup has further called for more labour migrants to Qatar, so the current figure of immigrants in the country is undoubtedly higher - source.
[3] For more information on the history and timeline of China’s One Child Policy, see: China's one-child policy revisited: Its history and lingering impact
[4] The One Child Policy ended in 2015, and since 2021, three children are now permitted between couples in china in efforts to bring the birthrate up again.
[5] Guang gun translates to ‘bare sticks’ (Hesketh, 2009).
[6] For more reading on life under the Khmer Rouge, check out this chilling (TW) recount of life under the Khmer Rouge and this article on The Socio-Demographic Legacy of the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia.
[7] The old age dependency ratio is defined by Eurostat as: “the ratio of the number of elderly people at an age when they are generally economically inactive (i.e. aged 65 and over), compared to the number of people of working age (i.e. 15-64 years old)” (Glossary:Old-age dependency ratio - Statistics Explained).
Bibliography
Amnesty International. (2021). “In the prime of their lives” QATAR’S FAILURE TO INVESTIGATE, REMEDY AND PREVENT MIGRANT WORKERS’ DEATHS. Retrieved May 11, 2022, from https://www.amnesty.nl/content/uploads/2021/08/MDE-22.4614.2021-In-the-prime-of-their-lives-migrant-worker-deaths-in-Qatar_FINAL.pdf?x53918
BBC News. (2018, November 16). Khmer Rouge: Cambodia’s years of brutality. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10684399
Cai, Y., & Lavely, W. (2003). China’s Missing Girls: Numerical Estimates and Effects on Population Growth. China Review, 3(2), 13–29. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23461902
Chalabi, M. (2013, September 26). Qatar’s migrants: how have they changed the country? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/sep/26/qatar-migrants-how-changed-the-country
Eltahawy, D., Khan, A. S., & Janczenia, A. (2020, February 17). Nepalese migrant workers in Qatar face exploitation - Companies employing them should take action. Business & Human Rights Resource Centre. https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/blog/nepalese-migrant-workers-in-qatar-face-exploitation-companies-employing-them-should-take-action/
Ghimire, A. (n.d.). Nepal brief. MIDEQ - Migration for Diversity and Equality. https://www.mideq.org/en/resources-index-page/nepal-brief/#:%7E:text=Approximately%203.5%20million%20Nepalese%20(14,(GCC)%2C%20and%20India.
Harth, B. (2020, January 6). Caring for Japan’s elderly: Youth under pressure. Socialprotection.Org. Retrieved May 11, 2022, from https://socialprotection.org/discover/blog/caring-japan%E2%80%99s-elderly-youth-under-pressure
Hayes, A. (2021, August 24). What Was China’s One-Child Policy? Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/one-child-policy.asp
Hesketh, T. (2009). Too many males in China: the causes and the consequences. Significance, 6(1), 9–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2009.00335.x
Jing, Y. (2021, May 13). China’s one-child policy revisited: Its history and lingering impact. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-05-13/China-s-one-child-policy-revisited-Its-history-and-linger-impact-10e6ZTLZHtC/index.html
Kopsa, A. (2019, May 20). How Cambodia’s Day of Remembrance for Genocide Victims Has Always Been Complicated by Politics. Time. https://time.com/5591061/cambodia-remembrance-day-history/
Knoema (2020)r. Japan - Ratio of population aged 65+ per 100 population 15-64 years. Knoema. Retrieved from: https://knoema.com/atlas/Japan/topics/Demographics/Dependency-Ratios/Old-age-dependency-ratio-65-per-15-64#:~:text=Japan%20%2D%20Ratio%20of%20population%20aged,100%20population%2015%2D64%20years&text=In%202020%2C%20old%2Dage%20dependency,for%20Japan%20was%2048%20ratio.
PopulationPyramid.net. (n.d.). Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. Retrieved May 10, 2022, from https://www.populationpyramid.net/
Quackenbush, C. (2019, January 7). 40 Years After the Fall of the Khmer Rouge, Cambodia Still Grapples With Pol Pot’s Brutal Legacy. Time. https://time.com/5486460/pol-pot-cambodia-1979/
Rajkarnikar, P. J. (2020, December 21). Men’s Migration and Women’s Lives: Evidence from Nepal. © 2022 Boston University. https://www.bu.edu/eci/2020/12/21/mens-migration-and-womens-lives-evidence-from-nepal/
Sah, B. N. (2019). Remittance and Economic Development of Nepal. Patan Pragya, 5(1), 196–208. https://doi.org/10.3126/pragya.v5i1.30475
Shi, Y., & Kennedy, J. J. (2016). Delayed Registration and Identifying the “Missing Girls” in China. The China Quarterly, 228, 1018–1038. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0305741016001132
Tan, P. L. (2018). Dual Burdens of Care: “Sandwiched Couples” in East Asia. Journal of Aging and Health, 30(10), 1574–1594. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264318796061
Wang, L. (2019, November). Analysis of Population Age Structure. National Bureau of Statistics. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pdf/202010/P020201012524687421440.pdf
The World Bank. (2022, June 8). Fertility Rate, Total (births per woman) - China. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN
Zimmer, Z., Knodel, J., Kim, K. S., & Puch, S. (2006). The Impact of Past Conflicts and Social Disruption on the Elderly in Cambodia. Population and Development Review, 32(2), 333–360. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00122.x