Optimising kidney paired donation in the presence of uncertainty

Doctor in white coat wearing blue gloves holding a chest X-ray film examining lungs

PhD-candidate: Roby Cremers 
Start: Fall 2023

Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease, yet the demand for donor kidneys far exceeds supply. Allocation policies therefore play a critical role in determining who receives a transplant and when. My research studies how operations research methods can be used to improve these allocation decisions, with a focus on kidney exchange programmes.

Colourful pawns scattered on the table

The central question is how allocation policies can be designed to increase the number of transplants while ensuring equitable access for different patient groups, in particular patients who are difficult to match. This is particularly challenging in dynamic settings, where patients and donors arrive and leave over time, and decisions made today affect future opportunities.

Methodologically, I develop and analyze optimization and simulation models for kidney exchange. This includes stochastic optimization approaches that account for future uncertainty, as well as theoretical models based on Markov processes to study structural properties of matching policies. In addition, I use discrete-event simulation to evaluate policy performance under realistic conditions.

The ultimate goal of this research is to support the design of allocation policies that are both effective and implementable in practice, contributing to more equitable and efficient use of scarce donor organs. More broadly, the project demonstrates how operations research can contribute to decision-making in healthcare systems under scarcity and uncertainty.

Selected projects from the Econometric Institute

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