Both Russia and the United States are exploring options to use AI in nuclear decision-making. The decision to automate processes in the Nuclear Command, Control and Communications (NC3) systems using new technologies is much debated. Dr. Michal Onderco and Madeline Zutt argue in the Clingendael Spectator that the policy debate should go beyond the false dilemma of humans versus machines.
The controversy surrounding automating command and control
Using automation in nuclear decision-making is nothing new. Already in the 1960s both the US and the Soviet Union began to build automatic nuclear command systems. One of the latest developments is to include machine learning to help systems process more data in a short period. This allows a quicker response to a nuclear threat. Yet critics point out that increased automation of nuclear decision-making also carries risks. One of which is that AI can not engage in contextual thinking, make ethical judgements, understand the intent or even question orders in a way a human can. They therefore plea to exclude the use of AI in Nuclear Command Control and Communications (NC3).
Research into nuclear decision making
Research from the Global Social Challenges pillar of ESSB, supported by a subsidy from the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, shows that top-policy makers believe that the launch decisions of nuclear weapons will always rest with humans. This general point of view assumes that human beings will exercise good judgment or even that all humans will make the same calculations in a crisis. From behavioral science, we know this is not the case. There are certain limits to human judgement and rationality. People have different risk preferences, thus not all leaders are equally risk-averse.
Mix of AI and Human Judgement
Michal and Madeline thus conclude that AI can help as a trusty ‘adviser’ to human decision-makers. Both AI and humans are subject to different biases. A mix between both AI and humans in Nuclear Command Control and Communications (NC3) is crucial to save the world from a nuclear doomsday.
Read the entire article with references to numerous studies in this Spectator publication.
- Associate professor