A combined forecasting and packing model to support air cargo revenue decisions
- Start date
Friday 8 Jan 2021, 13:00
- End date
Friday 8 Jan 2021, 14:00
- Online seminar
- Spoken Language
Air cargo revenue management departments are in charge of accepting or rejecting incoming booking requests.
The overarching goal is to accept as many requests as possible, hence maximizing revenue, while limiting overbooking to ensure timely deliveries. In this paper, we present a novel combined forecasting and optimization model to assist the air cargo Revenue Management department of an airline. Using historical data from a partner airline, the forecasting block predicts the available cargo space in passenger aircraft (with a Long Short Term Memory network) and shipment dimensions (with a Multi-Layer Perceptron network), that are generally unknown at the time of the booking. On top of predicted values, probability distributions are also computed to be used as input for the optimization block. A Knapsack Problem is solved sequentially, using a heuristic based on the Extreme Points method, anytime a booking is received. A loading strategy of shipments, whose dimensions are computed using the aforementioned distributions and a user-defined confidence interval, into Unit Load Devices is determined, and the incoming booking is accepted if no other booking is offloaded in the process. The effectiveness, efficacy, and robustness of the model are tested on four case studies based on real booking data provided by partner airline.
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About Bruno Santos
Bruno F. Santos is an Assistant Professor and the a.i. Head of the Air Transport and Operations section, at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, at the Delft University of Technology. In his current position, he has been working on topics related to airline operations, including:
- Network and fleet development
- Operations scheduling and disruptions management
- Aircraft maintenance planning
- Air cargo operations planning.
He has more than 15 years of research experience and co-authored more than 50 refereed scientific works in international scientific journals and conferences. Bruno has participated in several research projects, including applied projects with industry partners and large European projects. He is the Scientific Coordinator of ReMAP, a 6.8 Million Euro H2020 project on the topic of Condition-based Maintenance in aviation and the holder of the KLM E&M chair at the TU Delft.