This paper identifies communication shocks for the European Central Bank (ECB) and quantifies their macroeconomic effects. Using a transformer-based language model fine-tuned on ECB communications, we construct a continuous measure of the monetary policy stance conveyed by monetary policy statements (2003-2025) and isolate its unexpected component by purging its systematic dependence on macro-financial fundamentals.
- Speaker
- Date
- Tuesday 22 Sep 2026, 16:00 - 17:00
- Type
- Seminar
- Room
- 4.02
- Building
- Langeveld Building
Emotional communication is delivered through a structured text message. An incentivized post-decision belief-hedge task separates participants’ expected trustee returns from ambiguity attitudes. Results show that emotional communication produces a positive but imprecise effect on Trust, with a larger estimate under flexible valence choice. It also increases expected trustee returns. Happiness leads to greater ambiguity seeking, and disappointment leads to lower likelihood insensitivity. Overall, emotional communication reshapes perceived reciprocity, suggesting that giving trustors access to emotion expression may encourage Trust.
Registration
To participate, please send an email to: ae-secr@ese.eur.nl
