Joint Estimation of Conditional Mean and Covariance for Unbalanced Panels

EI Seminar
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We develop a nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices in large and unbalanced panels. The estimator is supported by rigorous consistency results and finite-sample guarantees, ensuring its reliability for empirical applications in Finance. 

Speaker
Paul Schneider
Date
Thursday 6 Mar 2025, 12:00 - 13:00
Type
Seminar
Room
ET-14
Location
Campus Woudestein
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We apply it to an extensive panel of monthly US stock excess returns from 1962 to 2021, using macroeconomic and firm-specific covariates as conditioning variables. The estimator effectively captures time-varying cross-sectional dependencies, demonstrating robust statistical and economic performance. We find that idiosyncratic risk explains, on average, more than 75\% of the cross-sectional variance.

See also

Pricing ultra-short-term volatility surfaces

Federico Bandi (Johns Hopkins University)
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More information

Do you want to know more about the event? Contact the secretariat Econometrics at eb-secr@ese.eur.nl.

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