Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon

Research on Monday
Aerial Photo of river between trees
Rodrigo Soares
Monday 4 Mar 2024, 11:30 - 12:30
Polak Building
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Aerial Photo of river between trees

We study a Force-down/Shoot-down intervention in Brazil that led drug-traffickers to shift from air to river routes when transporting cocaine produced in the Andes. Using a unique database with cocaine production, homicides, and the network of rivers in the Amazon, we provide evidence that violence increased in municipalities along river routes originating from Andean producing countries after the policy. 

(With Leila Pereira and Rafael Pucci)

We also show that, during the same period, violence in these municipalities became more responsive to cocaine production in origin countries. We document an instance of crime displacement over the three-dimensional space, involving sophisticated adaptations from criminals regarding transportation technologies.

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2024 Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics

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