How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies.
- Speaker
- Date
- Monday 26 Feb 2024, 11:30 - 12:30
- Type
- Seminar
- Room
- 2-18
- Building
- Polak Building
(with Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung and Christoph Koenig)
Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.
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