dr. Ruben van Beesten
Period: September 2026 – August 2030.
Funded by: NWO
Renewable energy is essential to the energy transition, but it also makes our future energy supply harder to predict. Wind and solar power depend on the weather, while future electricity demand, energy prices, new technologies and government policies are also uncertain. Governments and energy companies therefore use mathematical optimization models to decide where and when to invest in infrastructure such as power plants and electricity networks.
These models explore different possible futures, or “scenarios”. The difficulty is that considering many scenarios makes the models extremely slow to run, while using too few can overlook important risks. This project aims to solve that problem by developing a smarter way to select a small number of scenarios. Rather than trying to represent every possible future equally well, the new approach will identify the situations that matter most for the decisions being made - for example, unusual periods with very little wind or sunshine.
The method will be tested using a model of the European energy system that helps explore investments in electricity networks and power generation up to 2050. Ultimately, the project could make energy planning both faster and more reliable, helping policymakers and investors make better-informed decisions despite an uncertain future.
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