Robustness Analysis for Multi-stage Adaptive Optimization with Application to Strategic Energy Planning

Fortunately, we can use mathematical modeling techniques to inform and improve these decisions. The HyChain project has developed a dataset and optimization model to serve this purpose for development of the Hydrogen economy in the Netherlands. 

Yet, in its current form, the modeling approach is somewhat inadequate. The existing model is fully deterministic and assumes perfect foresight, i.e., results in optimal decisions for a (known) expected/nominal future. However, a large-scale long-term energy transition brings wide uncertainties regarding future developments in technology, economics and policymaking. The goal of my PhD research project is to extend the existing model to account for the relevant uncertainties.

In the first paper we perform the first steps towards achieving this goal, which is to characterize the uncertainty and analyze the impact. In our analysis of impact we extend the existing "robustness analysis" (RA) framework to a multistage adaptive optimization setting. Furthermore we argue why RA is more interesting than conventional "sensitivity analysis", which is often encountered in scientific literature.

Coordinators

• Michal Mankowski
• Olga Kuryatnikova