Info-Metrics for Modeling and Inference
- Start date
Monday, 13 May 2019, 16:00
- End date
Monday, 13 May 2019, 17:00
Amos Golan (American University)
Our classical statistical arsenal for extracting truth from data often fails to produce correct predictions.
Our classical statistical arsenal for extracting truth from data often fails to produce correct predictions. Uncertainty, blurry evidence and multiple possible solutions may trip up even the best interrogator. Info-metrics – the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information – provides a consistent and efficient framework for constructing models and theories with minimal assumptions. It reveals the simplest solution, model or story, that is hidden in the observed information. Technically, info-metrics is at the intersection of information-theory and statistical inference. It combines the tools and principles of information theory, within a constrained optimization framework.
My talk will be based on my new book ‘Foundations of Info-Metrics: Modeling, Inference, and Imperfect Information,’ http://info-metrics.org/ in which I develop and examine the theoretical underpinning of info-metrics and provide extensive interdisciplinary applications. In this talk I will discuss the basic ideas via a number of graphical representations of the model and theory, and will then present a number of interdisciplinary real-world examples of using that framework for modeling and inference. These examples include finance, network aggregation, predicting election, and more.
Amos Golan is a professor of economics and directs the Info-Metrics Institute at American University. He is also an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and a Senior Associate at Pembroke College, Oxford. His main area of research is information, information processing and optimal decision rules based on efficient use of information. He applies the information processing techniques in many economic and finance applications.His works have been published at REstat, JASA, JOE, JBES, et al, some of which are highly cited.
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